Officials for the Ministry of Economy say World Bank in its recent statement has predicted increasing global economic challenges during 2023. According to the statement, given fragile economic conditions, any new adverse development such as higher-than-expected inflation, abrupt rises in interest rates to contain it, a resurgence of the COVID-19 pandemic, or escalating geopolitical tensions—could push the global economy into recession. This would mark the first time in more than 80 years that two global recessions have occurred within the same decade.
A spokesperson to the country’s ministry of economy in an interview with The Kabul Times correspondent said that a range of long-term programs have been set by the ministry of economy to somehow address the upcoming economic challenges in the country.
“Based on the World Bank prediction, global economic growth will be 2.1 percent in 2023 and 2024, during which poverty will possibly increase in the world countries including Afghanistan,” said Abdul Rahman Habib, a spokesperson to the ministry of economy.
He said that the ministry of economy has worked on an economic plan focusing on the reduction in poverty and economic growth, adding that the ministry’s programs were long-term that could help reduce in poverty in the country.
According to the ministry of economy’s spokesperson, absorption of assistance from the international community is part of the programs of the ministry of economy.
In the meantime, the country’s ministry of economy was planning to launch regional connectivity programs, prioritize the agriculture sector, extraction of mines and support domestic products to reduce poverty in the country.
The ministry of economy’s spokesman by pointing to supporting domestic products said that with supporting the domestic products they could reduce importing staples and create more job opportunities for the people.
The global economy is projected to grow by 1.7% in 2023 and 2.7% in 2024. The sharp downturn in growth is expected to be widespread, with forecasts in 2023 revised down for 95% of advanced economies and nearly 70% of emerging market and developing economies.
“The crisis facing development is intensifying as the global growth outlook deteriorates,” said World Bank Group President David Malpass. “Emerging and developing countries are facing a multi-year period of slow growth driven by heavy debt burdens and weak investment as global capital is absorbed by advanced economies faced with extremely high government debt levels and rising interest rates. Weakness in growth and business investment will compound the already-devastating reversals in education, health, poverty, and infrastructure and the increasing demands from climate change.”
Over the next two years, per-capita income growth in emerging markets and developing economies is projected to average 2.8%—a full percentage point lower than the 2010-2019 average. In Sub-Saharan Africa—which accounts for about 60% of the world’s extreme poor—growth in per capita income over 2023-24 is expected to average just 1.2%, a rate that could cause poverty rates to rise, not fall.
Based on the information of the World Bank, by the end of 2024, GDP levels in emerging and developing economies will be roughly 6% below the levels expected before the pandemic. Although global inflation is expected to moderate, it will remain above pre-pandemic levels.
Shukria Kohistani
Long-term economic programs to reduce poverty in Afghanistan
